I thought I was being conservative with 10 = 100 years.
Let's try the following: According to Moore's Law, the transistor
density of semiconductor chips doubles roughly every 18 months. It has
been mostly true (for 41 years now). For more details on it and the
argument about it, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

That means in the 10 year time-span, chip power has increased roughly by
a factor of 2^6.6 or 97. If you take Moore's Law as an indicator for
innovation in the computer industry, name me some other industry that
has become almost 100 times better/faster/more efficient (in other words
more innovative) within 10 years.
Let me give you a comparison:
The first real rocket (the German V2) had a speed of around four times
the speed of sound (when dropping from its top altitude). That's roughly
1361 m/s. The highest speed attained by a manned vehicle is 11.080 m/s
(Apollo 10). That's a factor 8 increase. The first successful V2 launch
was in 1942. Apollo 10 was in 1969. Hence we have a factor 8 increase
over 27 years. That means over 27 years, the annual factor was 1.08. The
18 month factor was 1.3.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-2_rocket
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10

We can take this even further. The fastest Wright brothers flight on the
day of the first flight (December 17, 1903) was 279 meters in 59
seconds. That's 4.7 m/s. Compared to Apollo 10, we have a factor of 2357
over 66 years. So we got that factor over 44 * 18 months. If you do the
math, then you get a factor of 1.2 every 18 months.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wright_brothers

If we use the 19 month factor of 1.3, we end up with around 26 years.

But let's look at today. In 2006, Apollo 10 is still the fastest manned
vehicle. So we get 103 years with a 2357 factor. That's an 18 month
factor of 1.11985. To get a factor of 97, we now need 40 years.

This is the best case example I could find.

The picture looks much bleaker if you look at land speed record. The
first car Gottlieb Daimler built in 1885 reached 12 km/h. The land speed
record is 1.228 km/h (1997). That's a factor of 102 over 112 years. I
would argue that most industries innovate at that pace.

Patrick Schmid
--------------
http://pschmid.net

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottlieb_Daimler
http://www.speed101.com/now/fastest_0127_6.htm

"Rose Madder" RoseMadder at Gmail.com wrote in message
:

10 years in the computer world is the equivalent of at least 100 years in
the non-computer world.

Where do you get these statistics? Just curious. It's quite a claim - ten
years equals a hundred years.

Not that I'm supporting the OP's silly diatribe, mind you.